Canada’s TC Energy (TRP.TO) reported third-quarter earnings below analyst expectations but reaffirmed a strong growth trajectory through 2028, driven by rising demand from AI data centers and the LNG sector. The Calgary-based company now anticipates annual earnings growth of 5% to 7% over the next three years, reflecting robust North American energy fundamentals and supportive policy environments.

CEO François Poirier highlighted the Canadian government’s designation of a potential second phase of Shell’s LNG Canada project as being in the national interest, alongside U.S. permitting reforms, as key factors enabling timely and cost-effective project delivery. TC Energy operates a 58,100-mile pipeline network supplying over 30% of North America’s daily natural gas consumption and forecasts a 45 Bcf/d rise in demand by 2035, driven largely by LNG exports, data center growth, and coal-to-gas conversions.

The company has placed around C$8 billion of projects into service this year, with a steady cadence of new project announcements expected through 2026. Average project size may rise from C$500 million to about C$1 billion next year, and capital spending could increase beyond the current C$6 billion guidance.

Despite these positive indicators, TC Energy’s U.S. natural gas pipeline segment, its largest, saw net income drop to C$801 million in the third quarter from C$1.3 billion a year ago, pressured by a more than 4% sequential decline in U.S. natural gas futures. Adjusted earnings per share were 77 Canadian cents, slightly below the 80-cent analyst consensus.

Looking ahead, TC Energy expects adjusted core profit of $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion in 2026 and $12.6 billion to $13.1 billion by 2028, maintaining an annual growth rate of 5% to 7%. The outlook underscores the company’s strategy to capitalise on long-term structural growth in natural gas and energy infrastructure driven by technological and policy shifts.

Read how TC Energy is positioning itself for long-term growth amid evolving North American energy demand in the full article.